Fecal profiling reveals a common microbial signature for pancreatic cancer in Finnish and Iranian cohorts

Sammallahti, Heidelinde; Rezasoltani, Sama; Pekkala, Satu; Kokkola, Arto; Asadzadeh Agdaei, Hamid; Azizmohhammad Looha, Mehdi; Ghanbari, Reza; Zamani, Farhad; Sadeghi, Amir; Sarhadi, Virinder Kaur; Tiirola, Marja; Puolakkainen, Pauli; Knuutila, Sakari

doi:10.1186/s13099-025-00698-0

Gut Pathogens

Table 5 ROC curve performance metrics for PDAC prediction by taxonomic ranks and machine learning methods

From: Fecal profiling reveals a common microbial signature for pancreatic cancer in Finnish and Iranian cohorts

Taxonomic ranks	Models and variables^a	AUC^b (95% CI)	Sensitivity (95% CI)	Specificity (95% CI)	Positive predictive value (95% CI)	Negative predictive value (95% CI)	Accuracy (95% CI)
Phylum	LR–all variables	0.85 (0.74, 0.95)	0.91 (0.76, 0.97)	0.86 (0.71, 0.94)	0.86 (0.71, 0.94)	0.91 (0.76, 0.97)	0.87 (0.76, 0.94)
	LR–selected variables	0.79 (0.68, 0.91)	0.82 (0.66, 0.91)	0.80 (0.64, 0.90)	0.79 (0.63, 0.90)	0.82 (0.66, 0.92)	0.79 (0.68, 0.88)
	SVM–selected variables	0.72 (0.60, 0.85)	0.85 (0.69, 0.93)	0.66 (0.49, 0.79)	0.70 (0.55, 0.82)	0.82 (0.64, 0.92)	0.74 (0.61, 0.83)
	NB–selected variables	0.79 (0.68, 0.91)	0.91 (0.76, 0.97)	0.71 (0.55, 0.84)	0.75 (0.60, 0.86)	0.89 (0.73, 0.96)	0.81 (0.70, 0.89)
	NN – selected variables	0.66 (0.52, 0.79)	0.67 (0.50, 0.80)	0.69 (0.52, 0.81)	0.67 (0.50, 0.80)	0.69 (0.52, 0.81)	0.68 (0.55, 0.78)
	DT – selected variables	0.65 (0.53, 0.76)	0.85 (0.69, 0.93)	0.49 (0.33, 0.64)	0.61 (0.46, 0.74)	0.77 (0.57, 0.90)	0.66 (0.54, 0.77)
Family	LR – all variables	0.50 (0.38, 0.63)	0.64 (0.47, 0.78)	0.40 (0.26, 0.56)	0.50 (0.36, 0.64)	0.54 (0.35, 0.71)	0.51 (0.39, 0.64)
	LR – selected variables	0.88 (0.78, 0.97)	0.85 (0.69, 0.93)	0.89 (0.74, 0.95)	0.88 (0.72, 0.95)	0.86 (0.71, 0.94)	0.87 (0.76, 0.94)
	SVM – selected variables	0.86 (0.77, 0.95)	0.85 (0.69, 0.93)	0.77 (0.61, 0.88)	0.78 (0.62, 0.88)	0.84 (0.68, 0.93)	0.78 (0.66, 0.87)
	NB – selected variables	0.81 (0.70, 0.92)	0.91 (0.76, 0.97)	0.66 (0.49, 0.79)	0.71 (0.56, 0.83)	0.88 (0.71, 0.96)	0.78 (0.66, 0.87)
	NN – selected variables	0.84 (0.74, 0.94)	0.73 (0.56, 0.85)	0.86 (0.71, 0.94)	0.83 (0.65, 0.92)	0.77 (0.62, 0.87)	0.79 (0.68, 0.88)
	DT – selected variables	0.77 (0.65, 0.88)	0.85 (0.69, 0.93)	0.74 (0.58, 0.86)	0.76 (0.60, 0.87)	0.84 (0.67, 0.93)	0.79 (0.68, 0.88)
Genus	LR – all variables	0.42 (0.30, 0.54)	1.00 (0.90, 1.00)	0.00 (0.00, 0.10)	0.49 (0.37, 0.60)	NA (NA, NA)	0.49 (0.36, 0.61)
	LR – selected variables	0.82 (0.71, 0.93)	0.82 (0.66, 0.91)	0.83 (0.67, 0.92)	0.82 (0.66, 0.91)	0.83 (0.67, 0.92)	0.81 (0.70, 0.89)
	SVM – selected variables	0.87 (0.78, 0.95)	0.79 (0.62, 0.89)	0.80 (0.64, 0.90)	0.79 (0.62, 0.89)	0.80 (0.64, 0.90)	0.79 (0.68, 0.88)
	NB – selected variables	0.75 (0.62, 0.88)	0.76 (0.59, 0.87)	0.80 (0.64, 0.90)	0.78 (0.61, 0.89)	0.78 (0.62, 0.88)	0.78 (0.66, 0.87)
	NN – selected variables	0.83 (0.73, 0.93)	0.73 (0.56, 0.85)	0.86 (0.71, 0.94)	0.83 (0.65, 0.92)	0.77 (0.62, 0.87)	0.79 (0.68, 0.88)
	DT – selected variables	0.85 (0.75, 0.94)	0.82 (0.66, 0.91)	0.83 (0.67, 0.92)	0.82 (0.66, 0.91)	0.83 (0.67, 0.92)	0.82 (0.71, 0.91)

AUC, area under the curve; CI, confidence interval; DT, decision tree; LR, logistic regression; NB, naïve Bayes; NN, neural network; SVM, support vector machine
^a“All variables” refers to all differential taxa at the respective taxonomic level, “selected variables” refers to the microbial classifier at the respective taxonomic level, determined by logistic regression, with an AUC threshold of > 0.7 (see also Fig. 9). At the phylum level, Firmicutes, Bacteroidota, and Cyanobacteria were included in the classifier. At the family level, {Unknown Family} Clostridia UCG-014, Enterococcaceae, Prevotellaceae, Butyricicoccaceae, Enterobacteriaceae, Erysipelatoclostridiaceae, Muribaculaceae, {Unknown Family} RF39, and FamilyXI were selected. At the genus level, the selected variables included Unknown Family Clostridia UCG-014, Anaerostipes, Erysipelotrichaceae UCG-003, Lachnospiraceae UCG-001, Unknown Genus Muribaculaceae, Prevotella_9, Agathobacter, Enterococcus, Hungatella, Intestinimonas, Enterobacter, Uncultured11, Butyricicoccus, Unknown Family RF39, Citrobacter, Lachnospiraceae NK4A136 group, Uncultured03, Klebsiella, Eubacterium xylanophilum group, and Romboutsia
^bThe highest AUC scores are bolded

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