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Risk factors and clinical outcomes associated with multiple as opposed to single pathogens detected on the gastrointestinal disease polymerase chain reaction assay
Gut Pathogens volume 16, Article number: 45 (2024)
Abstract
Background
The use of gastrointestinal disease multiplex polymerase chain reaction (GI PCR) testing has become common for suspected gastrointestinal infection. Patients often test positive for multiple pathogens simultaneously through GI PCR, although the clinical significance of this is uncertain.
Methods
This retrospective cohort study investigated risk factors and clinical outcomes associated with detection of multiple (as opposed to single) pathogens on GI PCR. We included adult patients who underwent GI PCR testing from 2020 to 2023 and had one or more pathogens detected. We compared patients with multiple versus those with single pathogens and hypothesized that immunosuppression would be a risk factor for detection of multiple pathogens. We further hypothesized that, during the 90Â days after GI PCR testing, patients with multiple pathogens would have worse clinical outcomes such as increased rates of emergency department (ED) visits, death, hospitalization, or ambulatory care visits.
Results
GI PCR was positive in 1341 (29%) of tested patients; 356 patients had multiple pathogens and 985 had one pathogen. The most common pathogens included Enteropathogenic Escherichia coli (EPEC, 27%), norovirus (17%), and Enteroaggregative E. coli (EAEC, 14%) in both multi- and singly positive patients. Immunosuppression was not associated with multiple pathogens (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.35, 95% CI 0.96, 1.86). The factors most associated with multiple pathogens were Hispanic ethnicity (OR 1.86, 95% CI 1.42, 2.45) and chronic kidney disease (OR 1.69, 95% CI 1.13, 2.49). Patients with multiple pathogens were more likely to have ED visits during the 90 days after GI PCR testing (40% vs. 32%, p < 0.01), but they were not more likely to die, be hospitalized, or to have ambulatory medical visits.
Conclusions
Immunosuppression was not associated with detection of multiple as opposed to single pathogens on GI PCR testing. There were worse clinical outcomes associated with detection of multiple pathogens, although these effects were modest.
Introduction
The gastrointestinal disease multiplex polymerase chain reaction (GI PCR) is common and growing in popularity as a tool to diagnose diarrheal illnesses with greater sensitivity compared to traditional culture. Traditional culture-based testing rarely proves positive for more than one pathogen in a given sample, but GI PCR often detects co-infections with multiple diarrhea-causing pathogens. While GI PCR can identify co-infections, it is not always clear whether all detected pathogens are clinically relevant or if some represent colonization, particularly in patients with altered immune function [1,2,3,4]. This distinction is crucial as it can significantly impact clinical management decisions [5].
Despite widespread use of GI PCR, few studies have characterized the prevalence and types of organisms present in samples with multiple positive results. Additionally, there is a lack of understanding of the clinical implications of detecting multiple pathogens as opposed to a single pathogen on patient outcomes. This study aims to fill this knowledge gap and provide valuable insights into the interpretation of GI PCR results, especially in immunocompromised patients.
We hypothesized that immunocompromised patients would be at increased risk for multiple as opposed to single pathogens on GI PCR testing. In individuals with weakened immune systems, such as those with HIV/AIDS or undergoing cancer treatment or organ transplantation, the body’s normal defense mechanisms against colonization by gut pathogens are compromised [6,7,8,9,10,11]. Similarly, patients with comorbidities that disrupt the gut microbiome, such as cancer, diabetes, heart failure, chronic kidney disease, or inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), are more prone to enteric infections [9, 12,13,14,15,16,17,18].
We further hypothesized that the presence of multiple pathogens would be associated with measurably worse clinical outcomes even after adjusting for other factors—i.e., that these patients would have true co-infection which would lead to increased healthcare utilization compared to singly-infected patients. A null hypothesis is that the detection of multiple pathogens usually represents colonization, and that such patients fare similarly to those with just one pathogen present [1, 5, 19].
By examining outcomes in those with multiple as opposed to single pathogens on GI PCR, we aimed to inform the clinical question of infection versus colonization. The overarching goal of the study was to guide future GI PCR testing decisions and to better interpret results when patients test positive for multiple enteric pathogens.
Methods
Population
This was a single-center, retrospective cohort study conducted at Columbia University Irving Medical Center (CUIMC). Patients aged 18Â years or older who had undergone a GI PCR test between February 2020 and March 2023 were included. Children were excluded because of the differences in gut pathogens affecting adults and children [20]. The primary analyses were focused on the subset of patients who tested positive for one or more pathogens (i.e., a positive GI PCR test result). In instances where multiple positive stool tests were recorded for a single patient, the first test result was selected to ensure that each included test represented a unique individual. To minimize loss to follow-up, only individuals who had received primary care or specialist outpatient care within the two-month period preceding the assay GI PCR test were included. The study protocol was approved by the institutional review board of CUIMC.
GI PCR testing
Patients were classified as testing positive for multiple pathogens if they had two or more organisms detected on GI PCR; they were classified positive for a single pathogen if only one organism was detected. The stool samples collected from the patients were processed using the FilmArray GI Panel (BioFire Diagnostics, Salt Lake City, UT) according to the manufacturer’s instructions. Freshly excreted stool samples were collected by nurses and an aliquot of stool was placed directly into Cary Blair transport media at the bedside. These samples were mixed with the manufacturer’s reagents, loaded onto a cartridge, and placed in the FilmArray instrument for automated analysis. The FilmArray GI Panel utilizes a closed-system disposable pouch to qualitatively detect DNA or RNA from 22 different gastrointestinal pathogens including bacteria, parasites, and viruses [21]. The treating physicians had access to the GI PCR results when formulating treatment plans for their patients.
Classification of immunosuppression
The main focus of interest was immunosuppression, which was classified categorically. Patients were classified as immunosuppressed if they had auto-immune diseases, history of solid organ transplant, or if they took an immunosuppressive medication in the 90 days before GI PCR testing (Supplemental Table 1) [22,23,24,25,26].
Co-variables
Using automated queries of the electronic medical record, we gathered demographic, clinical characteristics, and comorbidities and classified them based on codes documented using the 10th revision of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD-10) coding system at the time of the GI PCR test (Supplemental Table 1). The ICD-10 system is used for billing in all U.S. healthcare settings and contains hierarchically structured medical diagnoses and reasons for healthcare visits [22]. (Supplemental Table 1). As of May 2024, ICD-10 is a medical classification list that standardizes disease and health condition coding across the globe and is maintained by the World Health Organization [27]. Age and BMI were split into quartiles. Laboratory values were defined as normal or abnormal based on the institutional laboratory reference ranges as of May 1, 2024 [28]. Age and serum markers were categorized to aid in risk stratification and clinical decision-making, providing clearer ranges for interpretation.
Clinical outcomes
We compared clinical outcomes during the 90Â days after GI PCR testing including mortality, hospitalization, ED visits, receipt of antibiotics, and ambulatory medicine visits, between groups testing positive for multiple versus single pathogens by gathering data from electronic medical records with automated queries and classifying outcomes as present or absent.
Statistical approach
Continuous data were expressed as means with standard deviations (SD) or as medians with interquartile ranges if the data were not normally distributed. Data were compared using t-tests for continuous data or chi-squared tests or Fisher’s exact tests for categorical data. Two multivariable models were constructed. First, a model was constructed for the outcome of testing positive for multiple as opposed to single pathogens on GI PCR. This model included immunosuppression a priori, with additional variables added stepwise, retaining those in the final model that independently predicted multiple pathogens. Second, a model was constructed for each clinical outcome. The primary focus of interest in this model was testing positive for multiple as opposed to single pathogens and we additionally pre-specified that age, immunosuppression, and insurance status would be included because these factors are likely to associate with poor outcomes. Logistic regression modeling was used to investigate risk factors for detection of multiple as opposed to single pathogens on GI PCR. Crude (unadjusted) odds ratios were used for descriptive purposes and adjusted odds ratios were used to control for potential confounding variables and to estimate the independent effects of predictor variables. Two-tailed test with a p-value of ≤ 0.05 was considered statistically significant. All statistical analysis was performed using RStudio [44], using packages forestplot [45], lubridate [46], olsrr [47], vtable [48], checkmate [49], report [50], tibble [51], abind [52], R language and environment [53], Table 1 [54], reshape [55], ggplot2 [56], stringr [57], forcats [58], tidyverse [59], dplyr [60], purrr [61], readr [62], tidyr [63], and kableExtra [64].
Results
Patient characteristics
There were 4704 patients who underwent GI PCR testing during the study period. Of these, 29% tested positive (either singly or multiply) and were included in the main analyses. The majority of patients were female (60%), with a median age of 53 years (IQR 35–68). Over half were White (52%), and nearly a quarter were Hispanic (24%), (Table 1).
Multiple as opposed to single pathogens detected
Out of the total patients tested, 1341 (29%) had a positive result on the GI PCR test. Of those with a positive GI PCR test, 985 (73%) were positive for a single pathogen, while 356 (27%) had multiple pathogens detected. Among the identified pathogens, the most prevalent were Enteropathogenic E. coli (EPEC), norovirus, and Enteroaggregative E. coli (EAEC). These accounted for approximately 70% of GI PCR results in patients with a single pathogen detected and 60% of PCR results in patients with multiple pathogens detected (Fig. 1). Patients with multiple positive GI PCR were slightly more likely to be immunosuppressed without reaching statistical significance (19% vs 16%, p = 0.07). They were more likely to be Hispanic (38% vs. 24%, p < 0.01) and to have end-stage renal disease (12% vs. 8%, p = 0.01) (Table 1). Among those with multiple pathogens detected on GI PCR, heat maps showed that the pathogen combinations most often co-present were EPEC and EAEC, EAEC and norovirus, and EPEC and norovirus. Higher rates of observed compared to expected combinations of co-positivity were seen for Enterotoxigenic E. coli (ETEC) and EAEC, Shiga toxin-producing E. coli (STEC) and ETEC, STEC and EAEC, and Giardia and Campylobacter (all p < 0.01) (Fig. 2).
Heat map illustrating the prevalence of co-infecting pathogens in patients with multi positive PCR results. Highlighted squares represent combinations of pathogens that occurred more frequently than expected, as determined by McNamar’s test with a statistical significance threshold of p < 0.05
Logistic regression model for multiple vs. single pathogens
In the final model, immunosuppression was not significantly associated with multiple pathogens (aOR 1.35, 95% CI 0.96–1.86) (Table 2). Hispanic ethnicity was associated with increased risk for multiple pathogens (aOR 1.86, 95% CI 1.42–2.45).
Detection of multiple pathogens and clinical outcomes
Within 90 days of GI PCR testing, 24 (0.5%) patients died, 568 (12%) recorded ED or urgent care visits, 2673 (57%) recorded ambulatory medicine visits, and 161 (3.4%) were hospitalized. Patients with multiple positive pathogens were more likely to have ED/urgent care visits compared to those with single positive PCR results (40% vs. 32%, p < 0.01) but were not more likely to experience any of the other outcomes (Fig. 3). Next, we used logistic regression modeling to investigate the independent association between multiple pathogens and 90 day ED visits. After adjusting for other factors, detection of multiple (as opposed to single) pathogens was associated with increased risk for ED visits (aOR 1.44, 95% CI 1.11–1.87) (Table 3). Other factors that were independently associated with ED visits were immunosuppression (aOR 1.95, 95% CI 1.43–2.66), and Medicaid insurance (aOR 2.51, 95% CI 1.74, 3.62). The rates of receiving an antibiotic prescription were similar between patients with multiple vs. single positive GI PCR results (33% vs 32%). When looking specifically at the rates of receiving two or more antibiotic prescriptions, patients with multiple positive results had slightly higher rates compared to those with a single positive result (23% vs 19%, p = 0.03).
Discussion
This study assessed the clinical significance of detecting multiple as opposed to single pathogens on the GI PCR test, a common occurrence that was observed in 24% of all positive tests. We assessed risk factors for multiple pathogens, including immunosuppression. We also characterized the prevalence and types of enteric infections and the differences in clinical course and outcomes, comparing patients who tested positive for multiple gut pathogens versus those who tested positive for one pathogen alone. Overall, the baseline characteristics and outcomes of the two groups were more similar than we expected. A priori, we hypothesized that patients positive for multiple pathogens would be more likely to be immunosuppressed and would have increased medical comorbidities. We found that immunosuppression was not statistically associated with multiple pathogens. Downstream from this, we found only very modest differences in clinical outcomes when comparing those with multiple pathogens versus a single pathogen. Patients positive for multiple pathogens, including the more commonly detected but less clinically relevant EAEC, had a slightly higher rate of emergency room visits than those positive for a single pathogen, suggesting a potential additional health burden. However, the overall similarity between these two groups in terms of risk factors and the lack of thorough measures of clinical outcomes, such as severity of disease, duration of symptoms, or antibiotic requirement, makes it difficult to conclusively determine whether co-infection with multiple enteric pathogens represents a substantial health burden or is more likely an incidental finding. The higher prevalence of EAEC, an organism with less certain clinical relevance, among patients with multiple pathogens further supports the notion that these co-infections may not necessarily lead to worse clinical outcomes. While the increased emergency room visits among patients with multiple pathogens points to some additional health burden, the clinical course after GI PCR testing otherwise appeared largely similar between the two groups.
In contradiction to our results, prior studies have suggested that immunocompromise is associated with multiple gut pathogens, although many prior studies focus on enteric viruses and on children [3, 6, 29]. Specific immunocompromised subpopulations including children who are solid organ transplant recipients [29], those with HIV/AIDS [9, 12], and liver and stem cell transplant recipients [30, 31] are associated with higher rate of multiple pathogens on stool testing. The use of corticosteroids has also been associated with an increased likelihood of multiple pathogens on GI PCR among patients with IBD [32]. In a study of GI PCR testing in patients with HIV, Axelrad et al. found that 25% of men who have sex with men patients had multiple gut pathogens regardless of their degree of immunosuppression [11, 33]. Our study was not powered to look at specific categories of immunosuppression and it is likely that there was heterogeneity in the degree of immunosuppression within the diverse group of immunosuppressed patients included in the study.
Interestingly, Hispanic ethnicity was the most important predictor of multiple pathogens on GI PCR. Prior research has documented differences in microbiome structure between racial and ethnic groups [34,35,36,37]. Hispanic ethnicity may be associated with the detection of multiple pathogens on GI PCR due to a combination of host genetics, geographic location, and socioeconomic factors such as diet, living environment, pathogen exposures, access to medical care, travel, and other social constructs that shape the gut microbiome and influence susceptibility to enteric pathogens [35,36,37,38]. This study could not determine the specific factors underlying the association between Hispanic ethnicity and higher incidence of multiple pathogens on GI PCR testing.
Prior studies of viral diarrhea in children have suggested that there is greater severity of diarrhea when multiple viruses are detected, but less is known in adults and with bacterial enteropathogens [39]. After adjusting for other factors including age, insurance status, and immunosuppression, detection of multiple pathogens was associated with a 44% increased risk for subsequent ED visits compared to detection of a single pathogen. Those with multiple pathogens were also more likely to receive more than one antibiotic, although overall rates of antibiotic use were similar comparing those with multiple vs. single pathogens. There was no association between multiple pathogens and other clinical outcomes (death, hospitalization, or increased likelihood of an ambulatory care visit). Future diagnostics—particularly those using sequencing technologies—may provide more granular clinical information by reporting on the relative abundance of a given organism which could influence the decision of whether and how to treat.
When we looked at patterns of co-positivity, we found several pathogen pairs which appeared at a rate greater than expected by pure chance: ETEC and EAEC, STEC and ETEC, STEC and EAEC, and Giardia and Campylobacter. Whether these represent synergistic relationships or rather shared environmental risk factors is unknown. In prior studies, ETEC has been found to co-occur more often with EPEC, and with Campylobacter [40]. Prior studies have also suggested that bacteria-bacteria pairs appear together more frequently than virus-bacteria pairs [40, 41]. It is plausible that viral-bacterial coinfection could augment the severity of diarrhea [42]. One study employed a cluster analysis and hierarchical clustering approach to PCR-based data and demonstrated that such co-infections were likely to be clinically relevant [43].
This study has strengths, and some limitations. This study builds on the limited body of existing research that investigates patient variables and clinical outcomes associated with multiple pathogens on GI PCR. It was relatively large and looked at the presence of multiple pathogens from several angles. Limitations include a retrospective design, lack of granular data related to hygiene and lifestyle factors which may influence GI PCR positivity, and lack of detailed patient symptom and severity data. Future studies should investigate the impact of GI pathogens on patient outcomes and explore strategies to prevent and manage these infections.
In conclusion, we found that patients testing positive for multiple pathogens on GI PCR did not exhibit substantially different baseline characteristics or clinical outcomes compared to those testing positive for a single pathogen. The unexpected finding of Hispanic ethnicity as a predictor of multiple pathogens highlights the complex interplay between environmental, socioeconomic factors, and enteric infections. Patients who tested positive for multiple pathogens were more likely to have ER visits afterwards compared to those who tested positive for single pathogens, but no other harm was observed to be associated with multiple pathogens (no increased rate of death or hospitalization). On balance, these results argue that in many multi-positive GI PCR patients, one or more of the organisms is likely to be a colonizer.
Data availability
No datasets were generated or analysed during the current study.
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All authors approved the final version of the manuscript. I.M. and D.E.F. wrote the main manuscript text and prepared tables 1–3 and Figs. 1–3. All authors reviewed the manuscript.
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Supplementary Material 1. Table 1: Immunosuppression classification criteria including ICD-10 codes related to immune-mediated disease and immunosuppressants in 90Â days prior to PCR
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Mannstadt, I., Choy, A., Li, J. et al. Risk factors and clinical outcomes associated with multiple as opposed to single pathogens detected on the gastrointestinal disease polymerase chain reaction assay. Gut Pathog 16, 45 (2024). https://doiorg.publicaciones.saludcastillayleon.es/10.1186/s13099-024-00638-4
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DOI: https://doiorg.publicaciones.saludcastillayleon.es/10.1186/s13099-024-00638-4